The Greens are best placed to unseat Sir Bill Wiggin in North Herefordshire, according to an independent campaign group that advises how to vote tactically to defeat Conservative candidates in four weeks’ time.

The Movement Forward, backed by campaigners including media personality Carol Vorderman, says on its stopthetories.vote site that despite recent national polls putting the Greens third behind Labour in North Herefordshire, it had “manually set advice” for the constituency to favour the Greens instead.

This it says was because Labour “have said North Herefordshire is not a battleground seat for them, so won't be spending significant resource here”.

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For the Greens on the other hand, the seat is one of four targets to win nationally, in an area where unlike Labour, it “has a significant number of councillors”, the campaign site pointed out.

“Polling models are less accurate at predicting the vote share for smaller parties such as the Greens, and also don't take parties’ seat targeting into account,” it added.

Recent analysis based on YouGov polling claimed the seat would be a safe Tory hold, with 38 per cent of the vote, Labour on 23 per cent and the Greens on 17 per cent.

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But the county’s Greens say this and previous polls go against their own extensive doorstep polling in North Herefordshire, which puts them almost on parity with the Conservatives.

Green candidate Ellie Chowns said: “This independent advice to voters confirms what we’ve been hearing from local people all over North Herefordshire: it will be Green or Conservative here on July 4.”

She added: “We’re taking nothing for granted, as we know it will take every vote to achieve change here. But the message from this independent website is clear: for change in North Herefordshire, vote Green.”

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The same website says anti-Conservative voters in the county’s other constituency, Hereford and South Herefordshire, should vote Labour to defeat the incumbent Conservative Jesse Norman.

Here it is in line with YouGov’s recent prediction of the seat being a “toss-up” between Labour and the Tories, with a margin of less than five per cent between the two.

It claims 13 million people could vote tactically at the general election, which could be decisive in tightly contested areas.

Nominations to stand in Herefordshire’s seats closes tomorrow (Friday June 7).