Close your eyes and imagine life without oil. Impossible? Well, according to permaculture guru Rob Hopkins we are on the threshold of ‘peak oil’- the point at which the maximum amount of oil that can be extracted globally is reached.
Experts predict a 50% reduction in oil supply by 2030. In terms of demand, The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030 our energy consumption will rise by about 30% from current levels. Clearly something has to give.
There doesn’t seem to be much time left for us to develop new sources of energy. It does seem increasingly inevitable that many of the services we currently take for granted - cheap flights, cheap imports and global distribution of food - will be radically curtailed.
A number of ‘transition towns’, as they call themselves, have decided to start preparing for life without oil and have committed to "re-localising" food, energy, transport and their economies. Some of the inspiration for transition towns comes from the second world-war, when the UK was experiencing a prolonged fuel shortage. But, people were more connected with natural systems then, with good local food networks and less energy consumption per head. They were also more rooted in the places they lived and had fewer travel aspirations. In other words they hadn’t completely lost sight of how to live sustainably.
All this said, I do believe that in Herefordshire there is cause for hope. We may not have any transition towns here, but there do seem to be growing number of people willing to take radical local action. The emergence of a number of Carbon Reduction Action Groups and our rapidly growing local food economy are indicators that something is happening. And the action is not just in the towns - it is dispersed across the county. Perhaps we could become a ‘transition county’.
A life without oil could be better than life with it.

Professor Shirley Ali Khan