WHICHEVER way you look at it, it's payback time after the consumer boom - but the retail picture is not as bleak as painted, bank economic forecaster Mark Berrisford-Smith told delegates at a breakfast seminar last week.

Mr Berrisford-Smith, senior economist in HSBC's business unit, added: "Up to last August, the Bank of England raised interest rates five times to ensure the economy continues to grow at 2% a year.

"Although growth in retail sales has halted since last November, the amount of goods sold is holding up.

"The retail boom as we have known it has ended but this certainly doesn't mean high streets will be boarded up and shut down.

"However, people don't want to spend more if it means accumulating more debt."

He said that the housing market had cooled and predicted a gradual fall in the dollar rate.

Mr Berrisford-Smith added: ''The Chancellor's pre-Budget statement in November will reveal what mix of lower spending and extra taxation is required to plug a £20 billion per year current account deficit. But I don't expect interest rate cuts until the start of next year.''

Joint organisers of the event at Hereford's Left Bank, HSBC area director Alan Jarman, and Baker Tilly's Allan Davies, thanked the speaker and more than 80 delegates for attending.